Guest blog: What will we do when the oil runs out?
I’m feeling particularly honoured today. Not only am I accorded the status of ‘guest blogger’, I’m also ‘guest male’. Plus, I get to write about a subject I’ve been bending peoples’ ears about for many years already. My own personal soapbox.
- Image via Wikipedia
As you’re probably aware, the oil in question is crude oil, rather than, say, vegetable oil. M. King Hubbert first outlined the phenomenon of peak oil (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil) in 1956, and predicted the peak in oil production in the lower 48 U.S. states with remarkable accuracy. While it’s impossible to know for sure, most people who study these things reckon that we can expect a global peak sometime within the next five to fifteen years. Richard Branson, (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/07/branson-warns-peak-oil-close) who has more reason than most to be concerned with fuel prices, has recently been instrumental in attempting to get the message across to UK political leaders.
When you think about it, this is a pretty scary prospect. In the 100 years or so that we’ve been served by an abundant flow of cheap crude, we’ve become dependent upon it in every aspect of our lives. The possibility of having to do without it can leave us feeling a bit like junkies facing the reality of our last fix. Imagining a world beyond that oil peak can be near-impossible, as we contemplate the extent to which every aspect of our lives may need to change. The exploitation of Canadian tar sands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_sands) seems like an example of a forlorn attempt to prolong the oil age for a few more years rather than accept the inevitable decline.
On the other hand, a peak in oil supplies offers some tremendous opportunities. How many of us feel stressed and harrassed by the isolating influences of modern life? I know I do, at times. While we live in an age of material abundance unequalled at any time in history, the quality of our lives could sometimes be improved by a little less pressure, a little more time to relax, more creativity in our lives, and more opportunity to socialise with friends and family.
OK; maybe not family.
As to what we can actually do in the face of an oil peak, that’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. If I claimed to have a definitive response, I’d be lying. I doubt anyone can provide one. Some people are investing in renewable technologies, in the hope that when an oil shock hits they’ll be able to take up at least some of the slack. Others are focussing more on becoming self-sufficient in basic needs such as food, rediscovering the joys of working in allotments or community gardens. The Transition Towns (http://www.transitiontowns.org/) movement offers one example of a broad-based community approach to the situation. Even simple steps such as insulating the loft can have a big impact on the amount of energy we use to heat our houses.
On the other hand, there are powerful forces that prevent us from getting too far off the oil treadmill, unless we’re prepared to make some pretty radical shifts in our expectations. In a global market where national and international travel is commonplace, trying to avoid driving or flying can feel like more trouble than it’s worth. Where high consumption of fossil fuels is the norm, being the one who says ‘not for me, thanks’ can make the person who utters it feel about as popular as a clown at a funeral. To an extent, this is simply part of the age we live in. On some level, we all recognise that oil reserves are declining. On the other hand, conversations about how we will respond to the declines when they have a noticeable impact on our lives are still fairly marginal.
Overall, my attitude to peak oil is to be aware of it, accept that it will unfold over the next few years, and do what I can to mitigate my fossil fuel use. I’m pretty good when it comes to eating local food, for example, and I rarely drive. On the other hand, I live in rented accommodation so I’m quite limited in terms of insulating the house or switching to electricity generated renewably. What the world will actually look like post-peak is anyone’s guess.
It’s easy to get nostalgic for an imagined pastoral age that was supplanted by industrialism, even though that kind of existence was almost certainly a great deal harsher and more limited than the lives we’re used to. Without oil to free us from the land, it may be that more of our time will once again need to be devoted to meeting our basic needs. On the other hand, the technological and communication advances made possible through oil have changed our lives in many ways. It seems very unlikely that we will simply regress back into a state similar to the one we emerged from.
A best case scenario, at least in my eyes, involves making use of the technology and knowledge that has emerged from the past century or so, while recognising the limits that an oil peak imposes upon our material consumption. If we can do that, maybe we can use peak oil to catalyse a transition to a new way of life, rather than perceiving it as a threat to be scared of.
What will we do when the oil runs out?
Simon Brett
Simon Brett is a freelance writer and journalist based in Brighton. To learn more about his work, you can visit his A Human Voice blog
About Sarah ArrowSarah Arrow is the managing editor of Birds on the Blog, in real life she is the communications director of a same day courier service. She is an enthusiastic UK based pro-blogger and co- author of the soon to be published Zero to Blogger
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8 Responses to Guest blog: What will we do when the oil runs out?
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I must admit, until relatively recently, I’ve not paid a great deal of attention to what we’ll do when the oil runs out. Which is ironic, really, given that my main business is in environmentally friendly nappies! However, over recent years, I’ve grown a lot more interested in not driving as much and trying to rein in our consumerist behaviour.
I honestly believe that the only way to deal with this is to see what happens when the oil does run out. In theory, everyone knows it is coming, but in practice it isn’t yet going to modify our behaviour on the whole until it is forced on us.
I am always amused when American friends complain about how expensive fuel is, yet theirs is only a fraction of the cost of ours!
Thanks Morag.
I agree that crisis does appear to catalyse a shift in behaviour far more than an approaching crisis.
On the other hand; the more prepared we are, the better able we will be to handle the effects of oil shocks. If we’ve already started growing some of our own food, for example, we’ll be less vulnerable to shortages. If we’re more embedded in our own communities, we’ll have support networks partially developed.
I must admit, until relatively recently, I’ve not paid a great deal of attention to what we’ll do when the oil runs out. Which is ironic, really, given that my main business is in environmentally friendly nappies! However, over recent years, I’ve grown a lot more interested in not driving as much and trying to rein in our consumerist behaviour.
I honestly believe that the only way to deal with this is to see what happens when the oil does run out. In theory, everyone knows it is coming, but in practice it isn’t yet going to modify our behaviour on the whole until it is forced on us.
I am always amused when American friends complain about how expensive fuel is, yet theirs is only a fraction of the cost of ours!
Thanks Morag.
I agree that crisis does appear to catalyse a shift in behaviour far more than an approaching crisis.
On the other hand; the more prepared we are, the better able we will be to handle the effects of oil shocks. If we’ve already started growing some of our own food, for example, we’ll be less vulnerable to shortages. If we’re more embedded in our own communities, we’ll have support networks partially developed.
Yesterday I saw a TED Talk (if you haven’t already check out their site its so inspirational!) by Jane McGonigal about how gamers can make the world a better place. In 20 minutes she really impressed me into realising what potential we have in the gaming generation.
You can see her TED talk here: http://www.ted.com/talks/jane_mcgonigal_gaming_can_make_a_better_world.html
Jane masterminded a game called World Without Oil which encouraged gamers to use their collective wisdom to imagine strategies to survive without oil. Apparently the game led to many gamers changing their real life behaviours. Truly inspirational – take a look: http://www.worldwithoutoil.org/
I had never heard of TED talks until a month or so ago, and have since watched some VERY inspirational talks. I am so pleased someone has worked out how to use the collective wisdom of people who are bright but maybe a bit “dropped out” of the real world.
Yesterday I saw a TED Talk (if you haven’t already check out their site its so inspirational!) by Jane McGonigal about how gamers can make the world a better place. In 20 minutes she really impressed me into realising what potential we have in the gaming generation.
You can see her TED talk here: http://www.ted.com/talks/jane_mcgonigal_gaming_can_make_a_better_world.html
Jane masterminded a game called World Without Oil which encouraged gamers to use their collective wisdom to imagine strategies to survive without oil. Apparently the game led to many gamers changing their real life behaviours. Truly inspirational – take a look: http://www.worldwithoutoil.org/
I had never heard of TED talks until a month or so ago, and have since watched some VERY inspirational talks. I am so pleased someone has worked out how to use the collective wisdom of people who are bright but maybe a bit “dropped out” of the real world.